Recently, different media outlets reported that President Donald Trump discussed with some of his top aides the possibility of invading Venezuela in order to get rid of Nicolas Maduro’s regime and restore democracy. Apparently, they convinced him of not making that move, basing on the way it would affect the U.S. relationship with its allies in the region.
Political correctness aside, this revelation not only showed the fact that President Trump is on the right track regarding the Venezuelan crisis, but also that his administration missed a golden chance of saving a once-wealthy nation destroyed by socialism and setting a powerful precedent to the authoritarian left-wing regimes that still exist in this part of the world.
Essentially, the only thing that will stop the socialist misery is military intervention from without, not within.
Over the last few years, the push for dialog and peaceful negotiations between the Maduro regime and the Venezuelan opposition has been the tool that the Obama Administration, the European Union, and several countries in Latin America have used to address the Venezuelan crisis.
Given the lack of results and the way the socialists always took advantage of this strategy to double down on their bet for unlimited authority, the new tool that the Trump Administration and the international community decided to use against Venezuela has been the enforcement of different kinds of sanctions.
While the recent release of some political prisoners has been the only result of this move, the question that rises among numerous politicians is basically: what now?
Even when most of the Western democracies agree that regime change is the ultimate goal, one of the main issues that many seem to ignore is the fact that in addition to Maduro, most of the regime and military top officials are forced to stay in power, unless they want to end behind bars.
After all, they have been officially accused of several major crimes by the Treasury Department, including narco-trafficking and human rights violations. Basically, if this dictatorship ever falls, a lot of powerful people within the socialist movement will face unpleasant consequences.
Given this reality, even if immunity is guaranteed, it won’t be offered to every single official who has been sanctioned or accused. This way, those who can’t get this benefit will exploit their power and make a lot of chaos to save themselves, making the chances of regime change even more difficult.
Considering the absolute impossibility that peaceful negotiations will somehow provide the highly-expected transition, another option that many have been taking into consideration is oil sanctions.
Yet, although this would definitely represent a terrible hit to Maduro, it would also hurt the general population.
According to Luis Vicente León, president of the Venezuelan polling firm Datanálisis, another issue with imposing oil sanctions is that this strategy could easily fail in its intention of achieving regime change.
In different interviews, he pointed out that the clearest examples of how this move not always works are the cases of Cuba, Iran, Zimbabwe and North Korea.
Also, León has explained that the socialist regime has been preparing for an embargo scenario with the Cuban dictatorship, which has provided a significant number of officials from the intelligence apparatus to instruct Maduro how to navigate in these turbulent waters.
What seems even worse is that guaranteeing regime’s permanence in exchange for major concessions is also a disastrous option, since it would represent a major threat to the U.S. and the rest of the countries in the Western Hemisphere.
In addition to the way the Maduro regime will keep expanding its influence in South America and Europe, we’re talking about a genocidal tyranny that plays a major role in the Latin American narco-trafficking and is deeply involved in jihadi terrorism.
If the economic and humanitarian crisis weren’t enough, this socialist dictatorship allows terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah to use Venezuelan soil not only as a perfect training camp, but also as an operating base for their activities in Latin American.
As reported in different articles by Joseph Humire, executive director of the Center for a Secure Free Society, these include money laundering, radicalizing local Muslims, and drug-trafficking to finance terrorism overseas and support the Syrian regime.
Considering that the orthodox methods simply cannot work with a tyrannical regime that is willing to do the unthinkable to stay in power, a foreign military intervention is, unfortunately, the only effective solution.
One of the most relevant figures who recently called for this action is Diego Arria, former governor of Caracas and one-time president of the United Nations Security Council.
According to his words, Venezuela needs a surgical intervention from the United States to put an end to the regime, just as what happened with General Manuel Noriega in Panama back in 1989.
Lamentably, every single element regarding the Venezuelan situation points to this direction as the only way out. After all, there’s no chance that even the suspension of Venezuela from the Organization of American States would end in regime change.
In a recent essay, Venezuelan economist at Harvard University and former planning minister Ricardo Hausmann claimed that a military intervention should come through a coalition between the U.S., Peru, Brazil, Canada, France, Spain, Chile, Mexico, and Argentina.
Far from being a difficult operation, Hausmann wrote that this coalition would easily succeed. “The Venezuelan military are going to back down because they know they are completely outgunned,” he said.
While many believe that a military intervention will be a difficult operation considering the number of Venezuelan troops, (almost 120,000), the truth is that the Maduro regime is not prepared for this scenario.
According to Sebastiana Barráez, a Venezuelan investigative journalist and expert in the military area, it’s not a secret for anyone that the regime armed forces are suffering an unprecedented crisis.
“There is no feeling of attachment to the Armed Forces, of wanting to sacrifice yourself for the homeland. There are serious internal problems, requests for discharge and desertion are growing,” she explained in an interview to Panampost.
Basically, President Trump was right in his intention of invading Venezuela. After all, a foreign military action is right now the only chance of salvation for a country that has been systematically destroyed by a gang of criminals that control the three branches of government, the media, the oil industry, the drug trade, and the armed forces.
Considering that the IMF predicted a 13,000 percent of inflation for this year, the economic and humanitarian crisis will get worse than ever, meaning that the regime will show an even more repressive behavior to control the protests and the internal divisions that will definitely occur.
Inevitably, more people will die and the regime will give more power to the military to maintain loyalty and prevent a hypothetical insurrection.
While many believe that a coup could be a good alternative, the likeliest outcome of such an event would be the replacement of Maduro for a more radical member of the socialist party.
The assumption that a military attack would be worse for the Venezuelan people is a disgraceful display of ignorance and naiveté, not only because it’s impossible for the regime to come out victorious of such an event but also because the burden that the population is experiencing is already worse than a war.
We’re talking about a country with the highest inflation in the world, over 300,000 children at risk of death from malnutrition, a raging homicide and kidnapping epidemic that rival a war zone, and a mass exodus that has already become the largest refugee crisis in the Americas.
Lamentably, the fact that the only solution for Venezuela is through a miracle or a foreign military intervention is an uncomfortable reality that the White House and the international community should accept sooner than later.
If not, an unprecedented destabilization will explode as an atomic bomb in one of the most volcanic and politically unstable regions in the world.