They weren’t expecting this.
They were saying that the overall ‘growth picture’ of the United States was beginning to ‘weaken.”
They claimed that President Trump’s use of tariffs and other sound economic principles were going to cost us all… They were wrong, again.
CNBC had to report:
Payroll growth rebounded sharply in June as the U.S. economy added 224,000 jobs…The unemployment rate edged up to 3.7% as labor force participation rose, according to the Labor Department.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected nonfarm payrolls to rise by 165,000 and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.6%.
May’s initially reported growth of 75,000 had raised doubts about the durability of the record-setting expansion that began a decade ago. The May count was revised lower to 72,000.
Federal Reserve policymakers have been watching the jobs numbers closely.
Markets have been widely anticipating that the central bank will cut its benchmark interest rate later this month, regardless of what the June payrolls report showed. Stock market futures ticked lower after the report as investors contemplated what the report might mean for expectations that the central bank will be cutting interest rates later this month in an effort to stave off a widely expected economic slowdown through the year.
The report “would seem to make a mockery of market expectations” for a quarter- or half-point cut at the July 30-31 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee,” said Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.
The level of job growth, he added, “is still much stronger than the levels that have usually prompted the Fed to cut rates in the past and, although we do still expect the weakening economy to prompt the Fed to loosen policy, the first rate cut will probably be delayed until September.”
Market reaction shifted abruptly following the Bureau of Labor Statistics release. Traders moved the possibility of a 50-basis point cut to 8% from nearly 30% though 100% expectations for a quarter-point cut remained firmly in place.
Professional and business services led the gains with 51,000, while health care added 35,000 and transportation and warehousing contributed another 24,000.
The closely watched average hourly earnings number disappointed, rising 0.2% on a monthly basis against expectations for 0.3% growth. Over the past 12 months, wages were up 3.1%, also a notch below market estimates of 3.2%. The average work week was unchanged at 34.4 hours.
The total labor force increased by 335,000 to just under 163 million while those counted as not in the labor force fell by 158,000 to 96.1 million.
Overall, the jobs report allayed fears that the labor market was weakening; a release earlier this week from ADP and Moody’s Analytics had indicated private payroll growth of just 102,000, which was well below the government’s count of 191,000. Government job gains of 33,000 accounted for the balance of June’s rise.
Stock futures declined after the report.
However, some Fed officials insist they can continue to watch the economic data before acting. Manufacturing activity of late has been showing signs of contracting as corporate executives complain of increased prices due to tariffs the U.S. has imposed against its trading partners.
“Today’s jobs report shows the U.S. economy continues to create jobs at a strong pace even as we enter the longest period of economic expansion on record,” said Tony Bedikian, head of global markets at Citizens Bank. “The bounce back in the June jobs number may splash cold water on the notion of an imminent Fed rate cut. We will have to see whether the equity markets can shrug that off when balanced against other macroeconomic factors, such as the hope of a China trade truce.”
In addition to the downward revision for the May report, April’s count fell to 216,000 from 224,000.